KS Cracovia vs Pogon Szczecin: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
KS Cracoviavs
Pogon SzczecinThe model puts KS Cracovia at 43%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours KS Cracovia.
- −The head-to-head record favours Pogon Szczecin (1-1-4).
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- KS Cracovia have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Pogon Szczecin have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- KS Cracovia have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- KS Cracovia is priced at 2.28.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts KS Cracovia at 43%. The model puts the draw at 30%. The model puts Pogon Szczecin at 27%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. KS Cracovia is priced at 2.28. The draw is priced at 2.85. Pogon Szczecin is priced at 3.52.
KS Cracovia have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Pogon Szczecin have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
KS Cracovia have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Pogon Szczecin have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, KS Cracovia or Pogon Szczecin?
Our model rates KS Cracovia as the most likely outcome at 43% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for KS Cracovia vs Pogon Szczecin?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 KS Cracovia wins, 1 draws, 4 Pogon Szczecin wins.
Odds movement
League table
Poland. Ekstraklasa| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Legia Warsaw | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | 6 |
| 2 |  Jagiellonia Bialystok | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 6 |
| 3 |  Wisla PLock | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:1 | 4 |
| 4 |  Lech Poznan | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:1 | 4 |
| 5 |  Katowice | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 6 |  Gornik Zabrze | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 7 |  Wisla Krakow | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5:5 | 3 |
| 8 |  Slask Wroclaw | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:3 | 3 |
| 9 |  Zaglebie Lubin | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:3 | 3 |
| 10 |  Piast Gliwice | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:5 | 3 |
| 11 |  RKS Radomiak Radom | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 12 |  Widzew Lodz | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2:2 | 2 |
| 13 | KS Cracovia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 14 |  Motor Lublin | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3:4 | 1 |
| 15 |  Korona Kielce | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 16 | Pogon Szczecin | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 17 |  Rakow Czestochowa | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:4 | 0 |
| 18 |  Wieczysta Krakow | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:4 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.