Legia Warsaw vs Zaglebie Lubin: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Legia Warsawvs
Zaglebie LubinThe model puts Legia Warsaw at 60%. The model leans toward Legia Warsaw. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Legia Warsaw (5-0-1).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Legia Warsaw have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Zaglebie Lubin have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Legia Warsaw have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Legia Warsaw is priced at 1.59.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 10 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 9 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Legia Warsaw at 60%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Zaglebie Lubin at 17%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Legia Warsaw. Legia Warsaw is priced at 1.59. The draw is priced at 3.84. Zaglebie Lubin is priced at 5.43.
Legia Warsaw have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Zaglebie Lubin have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Legia Warsaw have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Zaglebie Lubin have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Zaglebie Lubin are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 43% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Legia Warsaw or Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model rates Legia Warsaw as the most likely outcome at 60% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Legia Warsaw vs Zaglebie Lubin?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 5 Legia Warsaw wins, 0 draws, 1 Zaglebie Lubin wins.
League table
Poland. Ekstraklasa| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Jagiellonia Bialystok | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 6 |
| 2 |  Wisla PLock | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:1 | 4 |
| 3 |  Lech Poznan | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:1 | 4 |
| 4 | Zaglebie Lubin | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 5 |  Gornik Zabrze | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 6 |  RKS Radomiak Radom | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 7 | Legia Warsaw | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 8 |  Wisla Krakow | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5:5 | 3 |
| 9 |  Piast Gliwice | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:5 | 3 |
| 10 |  Widzew Lodz | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2:2 | 2 |
| 11 |  KS Cracovia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 12 |  Motor Lublin | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3:4 | 1 |
| 13 |  Katowice | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 14 |  Slask Wroclaw | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 15 |  Rakow Czestochowa | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 16 |  Korona Kielce | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 17 |  Pogon Szczecin | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 18 |  Wieczysta Krakow | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:4 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.