Emmen vs Roda JC Kerkrade: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Emmenvs
Roda JC KerkradeThe model puts Emmen at 45%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Emmen.
- +The head-to-head record favours Emmen (4-2-0).
- −Emmen are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Emmen have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Roda JC Kerkrade have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Emmen have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Emmen will be without Claridge Jensen, Rheine.
- Roda JC Kerkrade will be without Zakarya Khaldi.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Emmen at 45%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Roda JC Kerkrade at 33%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Emmen is priced at 2.26. The draw is priced at 3.8. Roda JC Kerkrade is priced at 2.723.
Emmen have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Emmen have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Roda JC Kerkrade have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Emmen or Roda JC Kerkrade?
Our model rates Emmen as the most likely outcome at 45% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Emmen vs Roda JC Kerkrade?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 4 Emmen wins, 2 draws, 0 Roda JC Kerkrade wins.
League table
Netherlands. Eerste Divisie| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  De Graafschap | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 |  VVV-Venlo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Den Bosch | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Dordrecht | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 5 |  Eindhoven | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 6 | Emmen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 7 |  Helmond Sport | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 8 |  MVV Maastricht | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 |  Almere City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 |  Oss | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 |  Volendam | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 |  Waalwijk | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 |  NAC Breda | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 | Roda JC Kerkrade | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 15 |  Vitesse | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 16 |  Heracles Almelo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 17 |  PSV Eindhoven II | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 18 |  AFC Ajax II | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 19 |  AZ Alkmaar II | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 20 |  Utrecht II | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.