Dordrecht vs AFC Ajax II: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Dordrechtvs
AFC Ajax IIThe model puts Dordrecht at 66%. The model leans toward Dordrecht. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Dordrecht.
- +The head-to-head record favours Dordrecht (3-2-1).
- −Dordrecht are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Dordrecht have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- AFC Ajax II have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Dordrecht have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Dordrecht will be without Bischof N., de Bie, Coremans T..
- Dordrecht is priced at 1.44.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 15 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Dordrecht at 66%. The model puts the draw at 18%. The model puts AFC Ajax II at 16%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Dordrecht. Dordrecht is priced at 1.44. The draw is priced at 4.85. AFC Ajax II is priced at 5.78.
Dordrecht have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. AFC Ajax II have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Dordrecht have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. AFC Ajax II have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 40% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Dordrecht or AFC Ajax II?
Our model rates Dordrecht as the most likely outcome at 66% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs AFC Ajax II?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Dordrecht wins, 2 draws, 1 AFC Ajax II wins.
League table
Netherlands. Eerste Divisie| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  De Graafschap | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 |  VVV-Venlo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Den Bosch | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 | Dordrecht | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 5 |  Eindhoven | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 6 |  Emmen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 7 |  Helmond Sport | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 8 |  MVV Maastricht | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 |  Almere City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 |  Oss | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 |  Volendam | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 |  Waalwijk | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 |  NAC Breda | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 |  Roda JC Kerkrade | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 15 |  Vitesse | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 16 |  Heracles Almelo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 17 |  PSV Eindhoven II | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 18 | AFC Ajax II | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 19 |  AZ Alkmaar II | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 20 |  Utrecht II | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.