HJK vs Motherwell: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
HJKvs
MotherwellThe model puts Motherwell at 36%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Win probabilities
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- HJK have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Motherwell is priced at 2.59.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts HJK at 36%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Motherwell at 36%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. HJK is priced at 2.69. The draw is priced at 3.38. Motherwell is priced at 2.59.
HJK have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. HJK are on 4 wins in a row.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, HJK or Motherwell?
Our model rates Motherwell as the most likely outcome at 36% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for HJK vs Motherwell?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward a balanced game.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.