Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs JEF United Ichihara Chiba: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Sanfrecce Hiroshimavs
JEF United Ichihara ChibaThe model puts Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 65%. The model leans toward Sanfrecce Hiroshima. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Sanfrecce Hiroshima.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −Sanfrecce Hiroshima are dealing with notable absentees.
- +JEF United Ichihara Chiba are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- JEF United Ichihara Chiba have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima will be without Shiotani, Araki Ha., Asano T., Joo-Sung K..
- JEF United Ichihara Chiba will be without Taguchi T., Ueda.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 15 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 65%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts JEF United Ichihara Chiba at 14%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Sanfrecce Hiroshima. Sanfrecce Hiroshima is priced at 1.48. The draw is priced at 4.42. JEF United Ichihara Chiba is priced at 6.65.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. JEF United Ichihara Chiba have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Sanfrecce Hiroshima are on 2 wins in a row. JEF United Ichihara Chiba have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 40% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Sanfrecce Hiroshima or JEF United Ichihara Chiba?
Our model rates Sanfrecce Hiroshima as the most likely outcome at 65% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs JEF United Ichihara Chiba?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 14 meetings: 5 Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins, 3 draws, 6 JEF United Ichihara Chiba wins.
League table
Japan. J-League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kashima Antlers | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 2 |  Gamba Osaka | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 3 |  Mito HollyHock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Avispa Fukuoka | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 5 |  Cerezo Osaka | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 6 |  Tokyo Verdy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 7 |  Kyoto Sanga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 8 |  Nagoya Grampus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 |  Shimizu S-Pulse | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 |  Kawasaki Frontale | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 |  Kashiwa Reysol | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 | JEF United Ichihara Chiba | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 |  Vissel Kobe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 15 |  Tokyo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 16 |  Fagiano Okayama | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 17 |  Machida Zelvia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 18 |  V-Varen Nagasaki | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 19 |  Yokohama F. Marinos | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3:4 | 0 |
| 20 |  Urawa Red Diamonds | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3:4 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.