Cerezo Osaka vs Fagiano Okayama: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Cerezo Osakavs
Fagiano OkayamaThe model puts Cerezo Osaka at 47%. The model leans toward Cerezo Osaka. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Fagiano Okayama (1-2-10).
- −Cerezo Osaka are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Cerezo Osaka have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Fagiano Okayama have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Cerezo Osaka have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Cerezo Osaka will be without Fernandes Lu., Kambayashi, Okuda, Sakata, Shibayama, Takahashi, Andrade.
- Fagiano Okayama will be without Kimura T..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Cerezo Osaka at 47%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Fagiano Okayama at 28%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Cerezo Osaka. Cerezo Osaka is priced at 1.925. The draw is priced at 3.66. Fagiano Okayama is priced at 3.82.
Cerezo Osaka have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Fagiano Okayama have won 10 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Cerezo Osaka have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Fagiano Okayama have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Cerezo Osaka or Fagiano Okayama?
Our model rates Cerezo Osaka as the most likely outcome at 47% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Cerezo Osaka vs Fagiano Okayama?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 13 meetings: 1 Cerezo Osaka wins, 2 draws, 10 Fagiano Okayama wins.
League table
Japan. J-League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kashima Antlers | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 2 |  Gamba Osaka | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 3 |  Mito HollyHock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Avispa Fukuoka | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 5 | Cerezo Osaka | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 6 |  Tokyo Verdy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 7 |  Kyoto Sanga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 8 |  Nagoya Grampus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 |  Shimizu S-Pulse | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 |  Kawasaki Frontale | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 |  Kashiwa Reysol | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 |  JEF United Ichihara Chiba | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 |  Vissel Kobe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 |  Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 15 |  Tokyo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 16 | Fagiano Okayama | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 17 |  Machida Zelvia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 18 |  V-Varen Nagasaki | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 19 |  Yokohama F. Marinos | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3:4 | 0 |
| 20 |  Urawa Red Diamonds | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3:4 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.