Nagoya Grampus vs Shimizu S-Pulse: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Nagoya Grampusvs
Shimizu S-PulseThe model puts Nagoya Grampus at 47%. The model leans toward Nagoya Grampus. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Nagoya Grampus.
- −The head-to-head record favours Shimizu S-Pulse (3-3-9).
- −Nagoya Grampus are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Shimizu S-Pulse are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Nagoya Grampus have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Shimizu S-Pulse have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Nagoya Grampus have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Nagoya Grampus will be without Koyamatsu, Nogami, Inagaki, Indio, Schmidt Dan..
- Shimizu S-Pulse will be without Kazuhiko Chiba, Sumiyoshi, Won D., Inoue, Takahashi Y..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Nagoya Grampus at 47%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Shimizu S-Pulse at 29%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Nagoya Grampus. Nagoya Grampus is priced at 2.09. The draw is priced at 3.56. Shimizu S-Pulse is priced at 3.4.
Nagoya Grampus have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Shimizu S-Pulse have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Nagoya Grampus have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Nagoya Grampus are on 2 wins in a row. Shimizu S-Pulse have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Nagoya Grampus or Shimizu S-Pulse?
Our model rates Nagoya Grampus as the most likely outcome at 47% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Nagoya Grampus vs Shimizu S-Pulse?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 3 Nagoya Grampus wins, 3 draws, 9 Shimizu S-Pulse wins.
League table
Japan. J-League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kashima Antlers | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 2 |  Gamba Osaka | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 3 |  Mito HollyHock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Avispa Fukuoka | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 5 |  Cerezo Osaka | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 6 |  Tokyo Verdy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 7 |  Kyoto Sanga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 8 | Nagoya Grampus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 |  Kawasaki Frontale | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 |  Kashiwa Reysol | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 |  JEF United Ichihara Chiba | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 |  Vissel Kobe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 |  Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 15 |  Tokyo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 16 |  Fagiano Okayama | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 17 |  Machida Zelvia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 18 |  V-Varen Nagasaki | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 19 |  Yokohama F. Marinos | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3:4 | 0 |
| 20 |  Urawa Red Diamonds | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3:4 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.