VVV-Venlo vs Heracles Almelo: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
VVV-Venlovs
Heracles AlmeloThe model puts Heracles Almelo at 42%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Heracles Almelo.
- −Heracles Almelo are dealing with notable absentees.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- VVV-Venlo have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Heracles Almelo have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- VVV-Venlo have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Heracles Almelo will be without Kulenovic, Borges Sanches.
- Heracles Almelo is priced at 2.25.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts VVV-Venlo at 32%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Heracles Almelo at 42%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. VVV-Venlo is priced at 2.89. The draw is priced at 3.54. Heracles Almelo is priced at 2.25.
VVV-Venlo have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Heracles Almelo have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
VVV-Venlo have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Heracles Almelo have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, VVV-Venlo or Heracles Almelo?
Our model rates Heracles Almelo as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for VVV-Venlo vs Heracles Almelo?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 VVV-Venlo wins, 0 draws, 3 Heracles Almelo wins.
League table
Netherlands. Eerste Divisie| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  De Graafschap | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 | VVV-Venlo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Den Bosch | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Dordrecht | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 5 |  Eindhoven | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 6 |  Emmen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 7 |  Helmond Sport | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 8 |  MVV Maastricht | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 |  Almere City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 |  Oss | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 |  Volendam | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 |  Waalwijk | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 |  NAC Breda | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 |  Roda JC Kerkrade | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 15 |  Vitesse | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 16 | Heracles Almelo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 17 |  PSV Eindhoven II | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 18 |  AFC Ajax II | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 19 |  AZ Alkmaar II | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 20 |  Utrecht II | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.