Dunfermline Athletic vs Ayr United: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Dunfermline Athleticvs
Ayr UnitedThe model puts Dunfermline Athletic at 47%. The model leans toward Dunfermline Athletic. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Dunfermline Athletic.
- +The head-to-head record favours Dunfermline Athletic (4-0-2).
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Dunfermline Athletic have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Ayr United have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Dunfermline Athletic have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Dunfermline Athletic is priced at 1.96.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Dunfermline Athletic at 47%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Ayr United at 26%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Dunfermline Athletic. Dunfermline Athletic is priced at 1.96. The draw is priced at 3.14. Ayr United is priced at 3.695.
Dunfermline Athletic have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Ayr United have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
Dunfermline Athletic have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Ayr United have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Dunfermline Athletic or Ayr United?
Our model rates Dunfermline Athletic as the most likely outcome at 47% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Dunfermline Athletic vs Ayr United?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 4 Dunfermline Athletic wins, 0 draws, 2 Ayr United wins.
League table
Scotland. Championship| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Livingston | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 2 | Ayr United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 3 |  Partick Thistle | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 4 |  Raith Rovers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 5 |  Stenhousemuir | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 6 |  Inverness | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 7 | Dunfermline Athletic | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 8 |  Greenock Morton | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 9 |  Queen's Park | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 10 |  Arbroath | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.