Hartberg vs Sturm Graz: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Hartbergvs
Sturm GrazThe model puts Sturm Graz at 55%. The model leans toward Sturm Graz. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Hartberg.
- +The head-to-head record favours Sturm Graz (0-1-5).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Hartberg have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sturm Graz have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sturm Graz is priced at 1.65.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 13 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Hartberg at 23%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Sturm Graz at 55%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Sturm Graz. Hartberg is priced at 4.79. The draw is priced at 3.95. Sturm Graz is priced at 1.65.
Sturm Graz have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Hartberg have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Hartberg are on 4 wins in a row. Sturm Graz have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 49% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Hartberg or Sturm Graz?
Our model rates Sturm Graz as the most likely outcome at 55% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 0 Hartberg wins, 1 draws, 5 Sturm Graz wins.
League table
Austria. Bundesliga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Wolfsberger AC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  LASK Linz | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 |
| 3 |  Rapid Wien | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 4 |  FC Salzburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 5 |  Ried | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 6 | Sturm Graz | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 7 |  WSG Tirol | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 8 |  Austria Lustenau | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 9 | Hartberg | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 10 |  Rheindorf Altach | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 11 |  Grazer AK | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:3 | 0 |
| 12 |  Austria Wien | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.