Lugano vs NSI Runavik: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Luganovs
NSI RunavikThe model puts Lugano at 78%. The model leans toward Lugano. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Lugano.
Win probabilities
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Lugano have 3 wins in their last 3 matches.
- NSI Runavik have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Lugano is priced at 1.235.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 8 | 4 | ||||
| 2 | 12 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 13 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 11 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 7 | 4 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Lugano at 78%. The model puts the draw at 15%. The model puts NSI Runavik at 7%. The model's most likely scoreline is 3-0.
The market leans toward Lugano. Lugano is priced at 1.235. The draw is priced at 6. NSI Runavik is priced at 12.5.
Lugano have 3 wins in their last 3 matches. Lugano are on 3 wins in a row. NSI Runavik have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 38% for both teams to score. The model gives 73% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Lugano or NSI Runavik?
Our model rates Lugano as the most likely outcome at 78% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Lugano vs NSI Runavik?
A scoreline around 3-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.