VMFD Zalgiris Vilnius vs Hajduk Split: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
VMFD Zalgiris Vilniusvs
Hajduk SplitThe model puts Hajduk Split at 50%. The model leans toward Hajduk Split. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours VMFD Zalgiris Vilnius.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- VMFD Zalgiris Vilnius have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Hajduk Split have 2 wins in their last 4 matches.
- Hajduk Split is priced at 1.808.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | |
| 1 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |
| 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts VMFD Zalgiris Vilnius at 26%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Hajduk Split at 50%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market leans toward Hajduk Split. VMFD Zalgiris Vilnius is priced at 4.28. The draw is priced at 3.74. Hajduk Split is priced at 1.808.
VMFD Zalgiris Vilnius have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. VMFD Zalgiris Vilnius are on 2 wins in a row. Hajduk Split have 2 wins in their last 4 matches.
The model gives 60% for both teams to score. The model gives 60% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, VMFD Zalgiris Vilnius or Hajduk Split?
Our model rates Hajduk Split as the most likely outcome at 50% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for VMFD Zalgiris Vilnius vs Hajduk Split?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.