Espanyol vs Real Madrid: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Espanyolvs
Real MadridThe model puts Real Madrid at 60%. The model leans toward Real Madrid. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Real Madrid.
- +The head-to-head record favours Real Madrid (3-0-12).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Espanyol have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Real Madrid have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Espanyol have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Real Madrid is priced at 1.66.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 14 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |
| 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Espanyol at 19%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts Real Madrid at 60%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Real Madrid. Espanyol is priced at 4.86. The draw is priced at 4.06. Real Madrid is priced at 1.66.
Espanyol have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Real Madrid have won 12 of the head-to-head meetings.
Espanyol have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Real Madrid have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 46% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Espanyol or Real Madrid?
Our model rates Real Madrid as the most likely outcome at 60% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Espanyol vs Real Madrid?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 3 Espanyol wins, 0 draws, 12 Real Madrid wins.
League table
Spain. La Liga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Real Sociedad | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Elche | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Deportivo Alaves | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Celta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 5 |  Malaga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 6 |  Rayo Vallecano | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 7 | Real Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 8 |  Villarreal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 |  Barcelona | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 |  Atletico Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 |  Sevilla | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 |  Racing de Santander | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 |  Deportivo de La Coruna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 |  Valencia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 15 |  Athletic Bilbao | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 16 | Espanyol | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 17 |  Real Betis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 18 |  Getafe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 19 |  Osasuna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 20 |  Levante UD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.