Orlando City vs Chicago Fire: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Orlando Cityvs
Chicago FireThe model puts Chicago Fire at 44%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Chicago Fire.
- −Orlando City creates more chances (13 vs 11 shots per game).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Orlando City have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Chicago Fire have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Orlando City have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Chicago Fire is priced at 2.18.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Orlando City at 35%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts Chicago Fire at 44%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market frames this as a close contest. Orlando City is priced at 2.725. The draw is priced at 4.38. Chicago Fire is priced at 2.18.
Orlando City have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Chicago Fire have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
Orlando City have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Chicago Fire have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Orlando City average 2 goals per game this season. Orlando City average 46% possession. Chicago Fire average 2 goals per game this season. Chicago Fire average 51% possession.
The model gives 72% for both teams to score. The model gives 73% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Orlando City or Chicago Fire?
Our model rates Chicago Fire as the most likely outcome at 44% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Orlando City vs Chicago Fire?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 4 Orlando City wins, 5 draws, 6 Chicago Fire wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 38:17 | 34 |
| 2 |  Los Angeles | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 35:19 | 34 |
| 3 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 37:24 | 33 |
| 4 |  Houston Dynamo | 18 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 27:24 | 32 |
| 5 |  Real Salt Lake | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 29:25 | 27 |
| 6 |  Dallas | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 32:25 | 27 |
| 7 |  St. Louis City | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 24:24 | 26 |
| 8 |  Portland Timbers | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 33:33 | 24 |
| 9 |  Seattle Sounders | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 20:22 | 24 |
| 10 |  Minnesota United | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 20:25 | 24 |
| 11 |  Colorado Rapids | 18 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 27:25 | 22 |
| 12 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 24:29 | 22 |
| 13 |  San Diego | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 32:29 | 21 |
| 14 |  Austin | 18 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 22:36 | 17 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 18 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 18:46 | 14 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.