Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Sporting Kansas Cityvs
St. Louis CityThe model puts St. Louis City at 49%. The model leans toward St. Louis City. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours St. Louis City.
- +St. Louis City creates more chances (10 vs 13 shots per game).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Sporting Kansas City have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- St. Louis City have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sporting Kansas City have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- St. Louis City is priced at 2.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Sporting Kansas City at 29%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts St. Louis City at 49%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward St. Louis City. Sporting Kansas City is priced at 3.165. The draw is priced at 4.22. St. Louis City is priced at 2.
Sporting Kansas City have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. St. Louis City have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Sporting Kansas City have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. St. Louis City have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Sporting Kansas City average 1 goals per game this season. Sporting Kansas City average 44% possession. St. Louis City average 1 goals per game this season. St. Louis City average 48% possession.
The model gives 46% for both teams to score. The model gives 40% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Sporting Kansas City or St. Louis City?
Our model rates St. Louis City as the most likely outcome at 49% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Sporting Kansas City wins, 3 draws, 1 St. Louis City wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 38:17 | 34 |
| 2 |  Los Angeles | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 35:19 | 34 |
| 3 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 37:24 | 33 |
| 4 |  Houston Dynamo | 18 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 27:24 | 32 |
| 5 |  Real Salt Lake | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 29:25 | 27 |
| 6 |  Dallas | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 32:25 | 27 |
| 7 | St. Louis City | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 24:24 | 26 |
| 8 |  Portland Timbers | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 33:33 | 24 |
| 9 |  Seattle Sounders | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 20:22 | 24 |
| 10 |  Minnesota United | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 20:25 | 24 |
| 11 |  Colorado Rapids | 18 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 27:25 | 22 |
| 12 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 24:29 | 22 |
| 13 |  San Diego | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 32:29 | 21 |
| 14 |  Austin | 18 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 22:36 | 17 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 18 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 18:46 | 14 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.