Stenhousemuir vs Greenock Morton: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Stenhousemuirvs
Greenock MortonThe model puts Stenhousemuir at 47%. The model leans toward Stenhousemuir. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Stenhousemuir.
- −The head-to-head record favours Greenock Morton (1-0-5).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Stenhousemuir have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Greenock Morton have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Stenhousemuir have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Stenhousemuir is priced at 1.98.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Stenhousemuir at 47%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Greenock Morton at 27%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Stenhousemuir. Stenhousemuir is priced at 1.98. The draw is priced at 3.28. Greenock Morton is priced at 3.445.
Stenhousemuir have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Greenock Morton have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
Stenhousemuir have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Greenock Morton have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 50% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Stenhousemuir or Greenock Morton?
Our model rates Stenhousemuir as the most likely outcome at 47% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Stenhousemuir vs Greenock Morton?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Stenhousemuir wins, 0 draws, 5 Greenock Morton wins.
Odds movement
League table
Scotland. Championship| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Livingston | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  Ayr United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 3 |  Partick Thistle | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 4 |  Raith Rovers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 5 | Stenhousemuir | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 6 |  Inverness | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 7 |  Dunfermline Athletic | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 8 | Greenock Morton | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 9 |  Queen's Park | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 10 |  Arbroath | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.