St. Mirren vs St. Johnstone: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
St. Mirrenvs
St. JohnstoneThe model puts St. Mirren at 41%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours St. Mirren (4-0-2).
- −St. Mirren are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- St. Mirren have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- St. Johnstone have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- St. Mirren have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- St. Mirren will be without Ayunga, Baccus, John, Mullen R..
- St. Mirren is priced at 2.33.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts St. Mirren at 41%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts St. Johnstone at 32%. The model's most likely scoreline is 3-2.
The market frames this as a close contest. St. Mirren is priced at 2.33. The draw is priced at 3.34. St. Johnstone is priced at 2.95.
St. Mirren have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. St. Johnstone have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
St. Mirren have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. St. Johnstone have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
St. Mirren average 2 goals per game this season. St. Mirren average 42% possession. St. Johnstone average 4 goals per game this season. St. Johnstone average 55% possession.
The model gives 84% for both teams to score. The model gives 89% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, St. Mirren or St. Johnstone?
Our model rates St. Mirren as the most likely outcome at 41% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for St. Mirren vs St. Johnstone?
A scoreline around 3-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 4 St. Mirren wins, 0 draws, 2 St. Johnstone wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
St. Mirren
- 0Chapman
- 0Henry Fieldson
- 0Gogic A.
- 0Frazer M.
- 0Richardson J.
- 0Nsio
- 0Carr
- 0Mochrie
- 0Phillips
- 0Ramos
- 0Sule
- Ayunga (Missing Player)
- Baccus (Missing Player)
- John (Missing Player)
- Mullen R. (Missing Player)
St. Johnstone
- 0Steward
- 0Foulds M.
- 0Diabate
- 0Mitchell
- 0Smyth Lia.
- 0Holt J.
- 0Stanton
- 0McAlear
- 0Fowler
- 0Paton
- 0Gullan
League table
Scotland. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Mirren | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 2 | St. Johnstone | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 3 |  Motherwell | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 4 |  Aberdeen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 5 |  Celtic | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 6 |  Dundee United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 7 |  Rangers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 8 |  Kilmarnock | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3:4 | 0 |
| 9 |  Heart of Midlothian | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 10 |  Hibernian | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 11 |  Dundee | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 12 |  Falkirk | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.