Dynamo Kyiv vs Qarabag: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Dynamo Kyivvs
QarabagThe model puts Dynamo Kyiv at 45%. The model leans toward Dynamo Kyiv. Confidence: medium.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Dynamo Kyiv have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Qarabag have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Dynamo Kyiv have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Dynamo Kyiv is priced at 2.14.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Dynamo Kyiv at 45%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Qarabag at 27%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Dynamo Kyiv. Dynamo Kyiv is priced at 2.14. The draw is priced at 3.4. Qarabag is priced at 3.42.
Dynamo Kyiv have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Dynamo Kyiv have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Qarabag have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Dynamo Kyiv or Qarabag?
Our model rates Dynamo Kyiv as the most likely outcome at 45% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Dynamo Kyiv vs Qarabag?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 1 Dynamo Kyiv wins, 0 draws, 0 Qarabag wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.