Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Pogon Szczecinvs
Motor LublinThe model puts Pogon Szczecin at 46%. The model leans toward Pogon Szczecin. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Pogon Szczecin have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Motor Lublin have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Pogon Szczecin have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Pogon Szczecin is priced at 2.02.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Pogon Szczecin at 46%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Motor Lublin at 26%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Pogon Szczecin. Pogon Szczecin is priced at 2.02. The draw is priced at 3.4. Motor Lublin is priced at 3.51.
Pogon Szczecin have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Motor Lublin have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
Pogon Szczecin have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Motor Lublin have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Motor Lublin are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Pogon Szczecin or Motor Lublin?
Our model rates Pogon Szczecin as the most likely outcome at 46% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Motor Lublin?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Pogon Szczecin wins, 0 draws, 3 Motor Lublin wins.
League table
Poland. Ekstraklasa| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Legia Warsaw | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | 6 |
| 2 |  Jagiellonia Bialystok | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 6 |
| 3 |  Wisla PLock | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:1 | 4 |
| 4 |  Lech Poznan | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:1 | 4 |
| 5 |  Katowice | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 6 |  Gornik Zabrze | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 7 | Pogon Szczecin | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 8 |  Wisla Krakow | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5:5 | 3 |
| 9 |  Slask Wroclaw | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:3 | 3 |
| 10 |  Zaglebie Lubin | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:3 | 3 |
| 11 |  Piast Gliwice | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:5 | 3 |
| 12 |  RKS Radomiak Radom | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 13 |  Widzew Lodz | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2:2 | 2 |
| 14 | Motor Lublin | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3:4 | 1 |
| 15 |  KS Cracovia | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0:2 | 1 |
| 16 |  Korona Kielce | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 17 |  Rakow Czestochowa | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:4 | 0 |
| 18 |  Wieczysta Krakow | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:4 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.