Ferroviario Maputo vs Baia de Pemba: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Ferroviario Maputovs
Baia de PembaThe model puts Ferroviario Maputo at 61%. The model leans toward Ferroviario Maputo. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Ferroviario Maputo have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Baia de Pemba have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Ferroviario Maputo have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Ferroviario Maputo is priced at 1.47.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 15 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Ferroviario Maputo at 61%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Baia de Pemba at 11%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Ferroviario Maputo. Ferroviario Maputo is priced at 1.47. The draw is priced at 3.3. Baia de Pemba is priced at 8.45.
Ferroviario Maputo have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Baia de Pemba have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Ferroviario Maputo have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Baia de Pemba have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 40% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Ferroviario Maputo or Baia de Pemba?
Our model rates Ferroviario Maputo as the most likely outcome at 61% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Ferroviario Maputo vs Baia de Pemba?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Ferroviario Maputo wins, 1 draws, 2 Baia de Pemba wins.
League table
Mozambique Championship| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Black Bulls | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 13:3 | 20 |
| 2 |  Clube Ferroviário da Beira | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 13:6 | 20 |
| 3 |  Costa do Sol | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 15:8 | 18 |
| 4 |  UD Songo | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 12:8 | 18 |
| 5 |  Clube Ferroviário de Nampula | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13:11 | 17 |
| 6 |  Ferroviario Lichinga | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 8:7 | 14 |
| 7 |  Liga Desportiva de Sofala | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 6:10 | 14 |
| 8 |  Clube Ferroviário de Nacala Velha | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6:8 | 13 |
| 9 | Ferroviario Maputo | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5:5 | 11 |
| 10 |  Vilankulo | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10:9 | 9 |
| 11 |  AD Pemba | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 5:13 | 8 |
| 12 | Baia de Pemba | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5:8 | 7 |
| 13 |  Chingale de Tete | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2:10 | 7 |
| 14 |  Maxaquene | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 4:11 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.