Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Arsenalvs
Borussia DortmundThe model puts Arsenal at 57%. The model leans toward Arsenal. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Arsenal.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Arsenal have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Borussia Dortmund have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Arsenal have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Arsenal is priced at 1.58.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Arsenal at 57%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Borussia Dortmund at 21%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Arsenal. Arsenal is priced at 1.58. The draw is priced at 4.33. Borussia Dortmund is priced at 4.915.
Arsenal have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Borussia Dortmund have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Arsenal have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Borussia Dortmund have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 46% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Arsenal or Borussia Dortmund?
Our model rates Arsenal as the most likely outcome at 57% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Arsenal wins, 1 draws, 2 Borussia Dortmund wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.