Qarabag vs Dynamo Kyiv: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Qarabagvs
Dynamo KyivThe model puts Qarabag at 45%. The model leans toward Qarabag. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Qarabag.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Qarabag have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Dynamo Kyiv have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Qarabag have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Qarabag is priced at 2.05.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Qarabag at 45%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Dynamo Kyiv at 30%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Qarabag. Qarabag is priced at 2.05. The draw is priced at 3.62. Dynamo Kyiv is priced at 3.46.
Qarabag have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
Qarabag have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Dynamo Kyiv have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Qarabag or Dynamo Kyiv?
Our model rates Qarabag as the most likely outcome at 45% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Qarabag vs Dynamo Kyiv?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings: 2 Qarabag wins, 0 draws, 0 Dynamo Kyiv wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.