Motherwell vs HJK: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Motherwellvs
HJKThe model puts Motherwell at 51%. The model leans toward Motherwell. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours HJK.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Motherwell have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- HJK have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Motherwell is priced at 1.83.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Motherwell at 51%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts HJK at 25%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Motherwell. Motherwell is priced at 1.83. The draw is priced at 3.76. HJK is priced at 4.14.
The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Motherwell have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. HJK have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 49% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Motherwell or HJK?
Our model rates Motherwell as the most likely outcome at 51% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Motherwell vs HJK?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 0 Motherwell wins, 1 draws, 0 HJK wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.