Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Excelsiorvs
PSV EindhovenThe model puts PSV Eindhoven at 56%. The model leans toward PSV Eindhoven. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours PSV Eindhoven.
- −The head-to-head record favours Excelsior (14-1-0).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Excelsior have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- PSV Eindhoven have 5 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Excelsior have won 14 of the head-to-head meetings.
- PSV Eindhoven is priced at 1.66.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 13 | 11 | 6 | 2 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Excelsior at 22%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts PSV Eindhoven at 56%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward PSV Eindhoven. Excelsior is priced at 4.82. The draw is priced at 4.1. PSV Eindhoven is priced at 1.66.
Excelsior have won 14 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Excelsior have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. PSV Eindhoven have 5 wins in their last 5 matches. PSV Eindhoven are on 5 wins in a row.
The model gives 48% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Excelsior or PSV Eindhoven?
Our model rates PSV Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 56% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 14 Excelsior wins, 1 draws, 0 PSV Eindhoven wins.
League table
Netherlands. Eredivisie| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excelsior | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  Fortuna Sittard | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Telstar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  PEC Zwolle | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 5 | PSV Eindhoven | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 6 |  Ajax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 7 |  Twente | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 8 |  Heerenveen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 |  Feyenoord | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 |  N.E.C. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 |  Utrecht | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 |  AZ Alkmaar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 |  Willem II | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 15 |  ADO Den Haag | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 16 |  Go Ahead Eagles | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 17 |  Groningen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 18 |  Cambuur | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:4 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.