Ajax vs Heerenveen: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Ajaxvs
HeerenveenThe model puts Ajax at 60%. The model leans toward Ajax. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Heerenveen.
- −The head-to-head record favours Heerenveen (2-2-11).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Ajax have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Heerenveen have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Ajax have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Ajax is priced at 1.465.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Ajax at 60%. The model puts the draw at 18%. The model puts Heerenveen at 21%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Ajax. Ajax is priced at 1.465. The draw is priced at 4.72. Heerenveen is priced at 6.25.
Ajax have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Heerenveen have won 11 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Ajax have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Heerenveen have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 45% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Ajax or Heerenveen?
Our model rates Ajax as the most likely outcome at 60% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Ajax vs Heerenveen?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 2 Ajax wins, 2 draws, 11 Heerenveen wins.
League table
Netherlands. Eredivisie| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Excelsior | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  Go Ahead Eagles | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | 3 |
| 3 | Ajax | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 4 |  AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 5 |  Telstar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 6 |  Groningen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 7 |  Feyenoord | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 8 |  Fortuna Sittard | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 9 |  PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 10 |  Twente | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 | Heerenveen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 |  N.E.C. | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 13 |  Utrecht | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 14 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 15 |  PEC Zwolle | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 16 |  ADO Den Haag | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 17 |  Willem II | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:4 | 0 |
| 18 |  Cambuur | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:4 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.