Manchester City vs Atletico Madrid: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Manchester Cityvs
Atletico MadridThe model puts Manchester City at 48%. The model leans toward Manchester City. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Atletico Madrid.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Manchester City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Atletico Madrid have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Manchester City have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Manchester City is priced at 2.067.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Manchester City at 48%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Atletico Madrid at 28%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Manchester City. Manchester City is priced at 2.067. The draw is priced at 3.785. Atletico Madrid is priced at 3.275.
Manchester City have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Atletico Madrid have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Manchester City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Atletico Madrid have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Manchester City or Atletico Madrid?
Our model rates Manchester City as the most likely outcome at 48% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Manchester City vs Atletico Madrid?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 1 Manchester City wins, 1 draws, 1 Atletico Madrid wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.