Ilves vs Rijeka: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Ilvesvs
RijekaThe model puts Rijeka at 57%. The model leans toward Rijeka. Confidence: medium.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Ilves have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Rijeka have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Ilves have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Rijeka is priced at 1.64.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 3 | |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Ilves at 18%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Rijeka at 57%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Rijeka. Ilves is priced at 5.45. The draw is priced at 3.82. Rijeka is priced at 1.64.
Ilves have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Ilves have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Rijeka have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 46% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Ilves or Rijeka?
Our model rates Rijeka as the most likely outcome at 57% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Ilves vs Rijeka?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 1 Ilves wins, 0 draws, 0 Rijeka wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.