NSI Runavik vs Lugano: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
NSI Runavikvs
LuganoThe model puts Lugano at 74%. The model leans toward Lugano. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Lugano.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- NSI Runavik have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Lugano have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- NSI Runavik have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Lugano is priced at 1.285.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 16 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 2 |
| 1 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts NSI Runavik at 9%. The model puts the draw at 16%. The model puts Lugano at 74%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-2.
The market leans toward Lugano. NSI Runavik is priced at 10.5. The draw is priced at 5.55. Lugano is priced at 1.285.
NSI Runavik have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
NSI Runavik have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Lugano have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 33% for both teams to score. The model gives 46% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, NSI Runavik or Lugano?
Our model rates Lugano as the most likely outcome at 74% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for NSI Runavik vs Lugano?
A scoreline around 0-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 1 NSI Runavik wins, 0 draws, 0 Lugano wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.