Al Nassr vs Al-Fateh Al-Ahsa: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Al Nassrvs
Al-Fateh Al-AhsaThe model puts Al Nassr at 81%. The model leans toward Al Nassr. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Al-Fateh Al-Ahsa.
- −The head-to-head record favours Al-Fateh Al-Ahsa (3-3-9).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Al Nassr have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Al-Fateh Al-Ahsa have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Al Nassr have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Al Nassr is priced at 1.071.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| 1 | 16 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 18 | 7 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 14 | 5 | ||||
| 4 | 8 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 4 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Al Nassr at 81%. The model puts the draw at 7%. The model puts Al-Fateh Al-Ahsa at 11%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Al Nassr. Al Nassr is priced at 1.071. The draw is priced at 11.7. Al-Fateh Al-Ahsa is priced at 19.5.
Al Nassr have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Al-Fateh Al-Ahsa have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Al Nassr have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Al-Fateh Al-Ahsa have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 28% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Al Nassr or Al-Fateh Al-Ahsa?
Our model rates Al Nassr as the most likely outcome at 81% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Al Nassr vs Al-Fateh Al-Ahsa?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 3 Al Nassr wins, 3 draws, 9 Al-Fateh Al-Ahsa wins.
League table
Saudi Arabia. Saudi Professional League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Al-Hilal Riyadh | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Ettifaq Dammam | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Al-Ittihad Jeddah | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Al Shabab Riyadh | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 5 |  Abha | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 6 |  Al-Ahli Jeddah | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 7 |  Al Hazm Rass | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 8 | Al Nassr | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 | Al-Fateh Al-Ahsa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 |  Al-Qadisiyah | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 |  Al-Taawon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 |  Al-Faisaly Harmah | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 |  Al-Khaleej | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 |  Al-Riyadh SC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 15 |  Neom SC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 16 |  Al Draih | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 17 |  Al Feiha | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 18 |  Al Kholood | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.