Newcastle United vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Newcastle Unitedvs
Bayer 04 LeverkusenThe model puts Newcastle United at 41%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
- −The head-to-head record favours Bayer 04 Leverkusen (0-1-2).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Newcastle United have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Newcastle United is priced at 2.24.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Newcastle United at 41%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 35%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Newcastle United is priced at 2.24. The draw is priced at 3.68. Bayer 04 Leverkusen is priced at 2.984.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Newcastle United have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Bayer 04 Leverkusen have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Bayer 04 Leverkusen are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Newcastle United or Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
Our model rates Newcastle United as the most likely outcome at 41% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Newcastle United vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 0 Newcastle United wins, 1 draws, 2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.