Leiston vs Bishop's Stortford: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Leistonvs
Bishop's StortfordThe model puts Leiston at 49%. The model leans toward Leiston. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Leiston.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Leiston have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Bishop's Stortford have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Leiston have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Leiston is priced at 1.92.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Leiston at 49%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Bishop's Stortford at 25%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Leiston. Leiston is priced at 1.92. The draw is priced at 3.5. Bishop's Stortford is priced at 3.385.
Leiston have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Bishop's Stortford have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Leiston have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Bishop's Stortford have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 50% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Leiston or Bishop's Stortford?
Our model rates Leiston as the most likely outcome at 49% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Leiston vs Bishop's Stortford?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 5 meetings: 2 Leiston wins, 1 draws, 2 Bishop's Stortford wins.
Odds movement
League table
England. Southern Premier League. Central| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Real Bedford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:2 | 3 |
| 2 |  Bromsgrove | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 3 |
| 3 |  Stourbridge | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 4 |  Rushall Olympic | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 5 |  Kettering Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 6 |  Bury Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 7 |  Redditch United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 8 |  Worcester City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 9 | Leiston | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 10 |  Stratford Town | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 11 |  Leighton Town | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 12 |  Peterborough Sports | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 13 |  Anstey Nomads | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 14 |  Racing Club Warwick | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 15 | Bishop's Stortford | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 16 |  Banbury United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 17 |  Hitchin Town | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 18 |  Halesowen Town | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 19 |  Alvechurch | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 20 |  Leamington | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:4 | 0 |
| 21 |  Needham Market | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:3 | 0 |
| 22 |  Stamford | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.