Evesham United vs Frome Town: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Evesham Unitedvs
Frome TownThe model puts Frome Town at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Frome Town.
- +The head-to-head record favours Frome Town (1-1-3).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Evesham United have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Frome Town have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Evesham United have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Frome Town is priced at 2.46.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Evesham United at 34%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Frome Town at 40%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Evesham United is priced at 2.52. The draw is priced at 3.24. Frome Town is priced at 2.46.
Evesham United have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Frome Town have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Evesham United have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Frome Town have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Evesham United or Frome Town?
Our model rates Frome Town as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Evesham United vs Frome Town?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 5 meetings: 1 Evesham United wins, 1 draws, 3 Frome Town wins.
Odds movement
League table
England. Southern Premier League. South| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Plymouth Parkway | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:0 | 3 |
| 2 | Evesham United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:2 | 3 |
| 3 |  Uxbridge | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 4 | Frome Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 5 |  Hanworth Villa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 6 |  Berkhamsted | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 7 |  Bath City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 8 |  Poole Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 9 |  Yate Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 10 |  Chertsey Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 11 |  Hanwell Town | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 12 |  Malvern Town | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 13 |  Sholing | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 14 |  Chichester City | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 15 |  Gloucester City | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 16 |  Gosport Borough | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 17 |  Basingstoke Town | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:4 | 0 |
| 18 |  Havant & Waterlooville | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 19 |  Chippenham Town | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 20 |  Wimborne Town | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 21 |  Taunton Town | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 22 |  Bracknell Town | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:7 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.