Alverca vs Estrela da Amadora: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Alvercavs
Estrela da AmadoraThe model puts Alverca at 41%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Estrela da Amadora.
- −The head-to-head record favours Estrela da Amadora (5-2-8).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Alverca have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Estrela da Amadora have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Alverca have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Alverca is priced at 2.185.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Alverca at 41%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Estrela da Amadora at 32%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Alverca. Alverca is priced at 2.185. The draw is priced at 3.32. Estrela da Amadora is priced at 3.38.
Alverca have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Estrela da Amadora have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Alverca have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Estrela da Amadora have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Alverca or Estrela da Amadora?
Our model rates Alverca as the most likely outcome at 41% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Alverca vs Estrela da Amadora?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 5 Alverca wins, 2 draws, 8 Estrela da Amadora wins.
League table
Campeonato de Portugal| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Porto | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  Marítimo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 3 |  Arouca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 4 |  Sporting Clube de Portugal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 5 |  Famalicao | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 6 | Estrela da Amadora | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 7 |  Estoril | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 8 |  Vitoria Guimaraes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 9 |  Gil Vicente | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 |  Rio Ave | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 |  Santa Clara | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 |  Moreirense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 |  Benfica | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 |  Braga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 15 |  Nacional da Madeira | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 16 |  Casa Pia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 17 |  Academico de Viseu | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 18 | Alverca | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.