Rio Ave vs Porto: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Rio Avevs
PortoThe model puts Porto at 68%. The model leans toward Porto. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Rio Ave (10-4-1).
- +Recent form favours Porto.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Rio Ave have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Porto have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Rio Ave have won 10 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Porto is priced at 1.345.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 2 |
| 1 | 5 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Rio Ave at 15%. The model puts the draw at 17%. The model puts Porto at 68%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Porto. Rio Ave is priced at 8.4. The draw is priced at 5.2. Porto is priced at 1.345.
Rio Ave have won 10 of the head-to-head meetings. Porto have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Rio Ave have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Porto have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 40% for both teams to score. The model gives 46% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Rio Ave or Porto?
Our model rates Porto as the most likely outcome at 68% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Rio Ave vs Porto?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 10 Rio Ave wins, 4 draws, 1 Porto wins.
League table
Campeonato de Portugal| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  Gil Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 3 |  Marítimo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 4 |  Arouca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 5 |  Sporting Clube de Portugal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 6 |  Braga | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 7 |  Academico de Viseu | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 8 |  Famalicao | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 9 |  Estrela da Amadora | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 10 |  Estoril | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 11 |  Moreirense | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 12 |  Benfica | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 13 |  Santa Clara | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 |  Nacional da Madeira | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 15 |  Vitoria Guimaraes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 17 |  Casa Pia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 18 |  Alverca | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.