Famalicao vs Marítimo: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Famalicaovs
MarítimoThe model puts Famalicao at 50%. The model leans toward Famalicao. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Marítimo.
- +The head-to-head record favours Famalicao (4-5-0).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Famalicao have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Marítimo have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Famalicao have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Famalicao is priced at 1.89.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Famalicao at 50%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Marítimo at 25%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Famalicao. Famalicao is priced at 1.89. The draw is priced at 3.54. Marítimo is priced at 4.1.
Famalicao have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
Famalicao have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Marítimo have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Marítimo are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 49% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Famalicao or Marítimo?
Our model rates Famalicao as the most likely outcome at 50% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Marítimo?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 9 meetings: 4 Famalicao wins, 5 draws, 0 Marítimo wins.
League table
Campeonato de Portugal| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Porto | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  Gil Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 3 | Marítimo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 4 |  Arouca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 5 |  Sporting Clube de Portugal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 6 |  Braga | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 7 |  Nacional da Madeira | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 8 |  Academico de Viseu | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 9 | Famalicao | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 10 |  Estrela da Amadora | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 11 |  Estoril | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 12 |  Santa Clara | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 13 |  Moreirense | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 14 |  Benfica | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 15 |  Vitoria Guimaraes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 17 |  Casa Pia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 18 |  Alverca | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.