Slovenia vs Republic of North Macedonia: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Sloveniavs
Republic of North MacedoniaThe model puts Slovenia at 55%. The model leans toward Slovenia. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Slovenia (2-2-1).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Slovenia have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Republic of North Macedonia have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Slovenia have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Slovenia is priced at 1.72.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Slovenia at 55%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Republic of North Macedonia at 18%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Slovenia. Slovenia is priced at 1.72. The draw is priced at 3.4. Republic of North Macedonia is priced at 4.985.
Slovenia have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Republic of North Macedonia have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Slovenia have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Republic of North Macedonia have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 41% for both teams to score. The model gives 40% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Slovenia or Republic of North Macedonia?
Our model rates Slovenia as the most likely outcome at 55% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Slovenia vs Republic of North Macedonia?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 5 meetings: 2 Slovenia wins, 2 draws, 1 Republic of North Macedonia wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
UEFA Nations League - League B| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Switzerland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 | Republic of North Macedonia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Scotland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 | Slovenia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.