Motherwell vs Freiburg: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Motherwellvs
FreiburgThe model puts Freiburg at 65%. The model leans toward Freiburg. Confidence: medium.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- Motherwell have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Freiburg is priced at 1.445.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14 | 20 | 14 | 7 | 2 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Motherwell at 15%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts Freiburg at 65%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Freiburg. Motherwell is priced at 6.7. The draw is priced at 4.7. Freiburg is priced at 1.445.
Motherwell have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 31% for both teams to score. The model gives 31% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Motherwell or Freiburg?
Our model rates Freiburg as the most likely outcome at 65% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Motherwell vs Freiburg?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.