New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
New York Red Bullsvs
Chicago FireThe model puts Chicago Fire at 45%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Chicago Fire.
- −New York Red Bulls creates more chances (13 vs 11 shots per game).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- New York Red Bulls have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Chicago Fire have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- New York Red Bulls have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Chicago Fire is priced at 1.97.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | |
| 1 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts New York Red Bulls at 32%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Chicago Fire at 45%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market leans toward Chicago Fire. New York Red Bulls is priced at 3.42. The draw is priced at 3.92. Chicago Fire is priced at 1.97.
New York Red Bulls have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Chicago Fire have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
New York Red Bulls have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Chicago Fire have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
New York Red Bulls average 2 goals per game this season. New York Red Bulls average 52% possession. Chicago Fire average 2 goals per game this season. Chicago Fire average 51% possession.
The model gives 70% for both teams to score. The model gives 70% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, New York Red Bulls or Chicago Fire?
Our model rates Chicago Fire as the most likely outcome at 45% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 5 New York Red Bulls wins, 5 draws, 5 Chicago Fire wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Houston Dynamo | 19 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 28:24 | 35 |
| 2 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 38:17 | 34 |
| 3 |  Los Angeles | 20 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 35:20 | 34 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 38:27 | 33 |
| 5 |  St. Louis City | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 27:25 | 29 |
| 6 |  Real Salt Lake | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 30:26 | 28 |
| 7 |  Dallas | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 32:25 | 27 |
| 8 |  Colorado Rapids | 19 | 8 | 10 | 1 | 29:25 | 25 |
| 9 |  Minnesota United | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 21:26 | 25 |
| 10 |  Portland Timbers | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 33:33 | 24 |
| 11 |  Seattle Sounders | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 20:22 | 24 |
| 12 |  San Diego | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 33:29 | 24 |
| 13 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 20 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 24:30 | 22 |
| 14 |  Austin | 18 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 22:36 | 17 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 19 | 4 | 13 | 2 | 18:48 | 14 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.