Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Fortuna Sittardvs
AZ AlkmaarThe model puts AZ Alkmaar at 54%. The model leans toward AZ Alkmaar. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Fortuna Sittard.
- −The head-to-head record favours Fortuna Sittard (12-1-2).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Fortuna Sittard have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- AZ Alkmaar have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Fortuna Sittard have won 12 of the head-to-head meetings.
- AZ Alkmaar is priced at 1.6.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Fortuna Sittard at 26%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts AZ Alkmaar at 54%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward AZ Alkmaar. Fortuna Sittard is priced at 5. The draw is priced at 4.36. AZ Alkmaar is priced at 1.6.
Fortuna Sittard have won 12 of the head-to-head meetings. AZ Alkmaar have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Fortuna Sittard have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. AZ Alkmaar have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 49% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Fortuna Sittard or AZ Alkmaar?
Our model rates AZ Alkmaar as the most likely outcome at 54% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 12 Fortuna Sittard wins, 1 draws, 2 AZ Alkmaar wins.
League table
Netherlands. Eredivisie| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Excelsior | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  Go Ahead Eagles | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | 3 |
| 3 |  Ajax | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 4 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 5 |  Groningen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 6 |  Heerenveen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 7 |  Feyenoord | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 8 |  N.E.C. | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5:3 | 3 |
| 9 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 10 |  Telstar | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 11 | Fortuna Sittard | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 12 |  PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 13 |  Utrecht | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 14 |  Twente | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 15 |  PEC Zwolle | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 16 |  ADO Den Haag | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 17 |  Cambuur | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:4 | 0 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:8 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.