San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
San Jose Earthquakesvs
Minnesota UnitedThe model puts San Jose Earthquakes at 47%. The model leans toward San Jose Earthquakes. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Minnesota United.
- −The head-to-head record favours Minnesota United (3-4-8).
- +San Jose Earthquakes creates more chances (20 vs 12 shots per game).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- San Jose Earthquakes have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Minnesota United have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- San Jose Earthquakes have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- San Jose Earthquakes is priced at 1.984.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts San Jose Earthquakes at 47%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Minnesota United at 31%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market leans toward San Jose Earthquakes. San Jose Earthquakes is priced at 1.984. The draw is priced at 3.92. Minnesota United is priced at 3.38.
San Jose Earthquakes have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Minnesota United have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
San Jose Earthquakes have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Minnesota United have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
San Jose Earthquakes average 2 goals per game this season. San Jose Earthquakes average 49% possession. Minnesota United average 2 goals per game this season. Minnesota United average 44% possession.
The model gives 69% for both teams to score. The model gives 71% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, San Jose Earthquakes or Minnesota United?
Our model rates San Jose Earthquakes as the most likely outcome at 47% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 3 San Jose Earthquakes wins, 4 draws, 8 Minnesota United wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Houston Dynamo | 19 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 28:24 | 35 |
| 2 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 38:17 | 34 |
| 3 |  Los Angeles | 20 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 35:20 | 34 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 38:27 | 33 |
| 5 |  St. Louis City | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 27:25 | 29 |
| 6 |  Real Salt Lake | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 30:26 | 28 |
| 7 |  Dallas | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 32:25 | 27 |
| 8 |  Colorado Rapids | 19 | 8 | 10 | 1 | 29:25 | 25 |
| 9 | Minnesota United | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 21:26 | 25 |
| 10 |  Portland Timbers | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 33:33 | 24 |
| 11 |  Seattle Sounders | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 20:22 | 24 |
| 12 |  San Diego | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 33:29 | 24 |
| 13 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 20 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 24:30 | 22 |
| 14 |  Austin | 18 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 22:36 | 17 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 19 | 4 | 13 | 2 | 18:48 | 14 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.