Atlanta United vs Sporting Kansas City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Atlanta Unitedvs
Sporting Kansas CityThe model puts Atlanta United at 61%. The model leans toward Atlanta United. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Atlanta United.
- +Atlanta United creates more chances (14 vs 9 shots per game).
- +Atlanta United controls more of the ball (56% vs 44%).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Atlanta United have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sporting Kansas City have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Atlanta United have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Atlanta United is priced at 1.648.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 16 | 10 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | ||||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Atlanta United at 61%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts Sporting Kansas City at 19%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Atlanta United. Atlanta United is priced at 1.648. The draw is priced at 4.54. Sporting Kansas City is priced at 4.44.
Atlanta United have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Sporting Kansas City have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Atlanta United have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Atlanta United are on 2 wins in a row. Sporting Kansas City have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Atlanta United average 1 goals per game this season. Atlanta United average 56% possession. Sporting Kansas City average 1 goals per game this season. Sporting Kansas City average 44% possession.
The model gives 39% for both teams to score. The model gives 42% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Atlanta United or Sporting Kansas City?
Our model rates Atlanta United as the most likely outcome at 61% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Atlanta United vs Sporting Kansas City?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 5 meetings: 2 Atlanta United wins, 1 draws, 2 Sporting Kansas City wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Houston Dynamo | 20 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 29:24 | 38 |
| 2 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 19 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 40:18 | 37 |
| 3 |  Los Angeles | 21 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 35:21 | 34 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 20 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 38:28 | 33 |
| 5 |  Dallas | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 38:29 | 33 |
| 6 |  St. Louis City | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 28:26 | 30 |
| 7 |  Colorado Rapids | 20 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 30:25 | 28 |
| 8 |  Real Salt Lake | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 33:30 | 28 |
| 9 |  Portland Timbers | 20 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 37:36 | 27 |
| 10 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 21 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 25:30 | 25 |
| 11 |  Minnesota United | 20 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 22:28 | 25 |
| 12 |  Seattle Sounders | 19 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 21:26 | 24 |
| 13 |  San Diego | 20 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 34:32 | 24 |
| 14 |  Austin | 20 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 25:39 | 20 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 20 | 4 | 13 | 3 | 19:49 | 15 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.