Guiseley vs Bury: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Guiseleyvs
BuryThe model puts Bury at 45%. The model leans toward Bury. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Bury.
Win probabilities
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Guiseley have 1 wins in their last 3 matches.
- Bury have 2 wins in their last 3 matches.
- Bury is priced at 2.1.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Guiseley at 29%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Bury at 45%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Bury. Guiseley is priced at 3.03. The draw is priced at 3.38. Bury is priced at 2.1.
Guiseley have 1 wins in their last 3 matches. Bury have 2 wins in their last 3 matches. Bury are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 56% for both teams to score. The model gives 53% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Guiseley or Bury?
Our model rates Bury as the most likely outcome at 45% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Guiseley vs Bury?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
League table
England. Northern Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Cleethorpes Town | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8:1 | 7 |
| 2 |  Warrington Town | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6:2 | 7 |
| 3 | Bury | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4:2 | 7 |
| 4 |  Gainsborough Trinity | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6:2 | 6 |
| 5 |  Avro | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8:5 | 6 |
| 6 |  Alfreton Town | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5:2 | 6 |
| 7 |  Ashton United | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5:2 | 6 |
| 8 |  Whitby Town | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4:3 | 6 |
| 9 |  Ilkeston | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3:3 | 6 |
| 10 |  Redcar Athletic | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2:1 | 5 |
| 11 | Guiseley | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5:4 | 4 |
| 12 |  Emley | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:3 | 4 |
| 13 |  Hyde United | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2:4 | 4 |
| 14 |  Rylands | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 15 |  Curzon Ashton | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4:5 | 3 |
| 16 |  Lancaster City | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3:6 | 3 |
| 17 |  Bamber Bridge | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2:8 | 3 |
| 18 |  Leek Town | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3:4 | 2 |
| 19 |  Stockton Town | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1:3 | 1 |
| 20 |  Workington | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2:5 | 1 |
| 21 |  Quorn | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2:8 | 1 |
| 22 |  United of Manchester | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1:7 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.