Twente vs Qarabag: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Twentevs
QarabagThe model puts Twente at 58%. The model leans toward Twente. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Qarabag (0-3-1).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Twente have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Qarabag have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Twente is priced at 1.61.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Twente at 58%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Qarabag at 19%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Twente. Twente is priced at 1.61. The draw is priced at 4.06. Qarabag is priced at 5.35.
Qarabag have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Twente have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Qarabag have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Qarabag are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 45% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Twente or Qarabag?
Our model rates Twente as the most likely outcome at 58% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Twente vs Qarabag?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 4 meetings: 0 Twente wins, 3 draws, 1 Qarabag wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.