Lugano vs Maccabi Tel Aviv: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Luganovs
Maccabi Tel AvivThe model puts Lugano at 48%. The model leans toward Lugano. Confidence: medium.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- Lugano have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Maccabi Tel Aviv have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Lugano is priced at 1.99.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Lugano at 48%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Maccabi Tel Aviv at 26%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market leans toward Lugano. Lugano is priced at 1.99. The draw is priced at 3.66. Maccabi Tel Aviv is priced at 3.6.
Lugano have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Maccabi Tel Aviv have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Maccabi Tel Aviv are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 74% for both teams to score. The model gives 80% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Lugano or Maccabi Tel Aviv?
Our model rates Lugano as the most likely outcome at 48% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Lugano vs Maccabi Tel Aviv?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.