Vitoria Guimaraes vs Nacional da Madeira: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Vitoria Guimaraesvs
Nacional da MadeiraThe model puts Vitoria Guimaraes at 55%. The model leans toward Vitoria Guimaraes. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Vitoria Guimaraes have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Nacional da Madeira have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Vitoria Guimaraes have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Vitoria Guimaraes is priced at 1.72.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 17 | 11 | 4 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Vitoria Guimaraes at 55%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Nacional da Madeira at 20%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Vitoria Guimaraes. Vitoria Guimaraes is priced at 1.72. The draw is priced at 3.86. Nacional da Madeira is priced at 4.68.
Vitoria Guimaraes have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Nacional da Madeira have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Vitoria Guimaraes have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Nacional da Madeira have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Vitoria Guimaraes average 0 goals per game this season. Vitoria Guimaraes average 58% possession. Nacional da Madeira average 2 goals per game this season. Nacional da Madeira average 49% possession.
The model gives 38% for both teams to score. The model gives 37% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Vitoria Guimaraes or Nacional da Madeira?
Our model rates Vitoria Guimaraes as the most likely outcome at 55% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Vitoria Guimaraes vs Nacional da Madeira?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 6 Vitoria Guimaraes wins, 3 draws, 6 Nacional da Madeira wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
Campeonato de Portugal| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Porto | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:0 | 6 |
| 2 |  Santa Clara | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:2 | 4 |
| 3 |  Sporting Clube de Portugal | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5:4 | 4 |
| 4 |  Gil Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 5 |  Marítimo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 6 |  Arouca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 7 |  Estrela da Amadora | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4:4 | 2 |
| 8 |  Braga | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 9 |  Famalicao | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 10 |  Estoril | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 11 |  Moreirense | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 12 |  Benfica | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 13 | Nacional da Madeira | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 14 |  Academico de Viseu | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | 1 |
| 15 |  Alverca | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:4 | 1 |
| 16 |  Casa Pia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 17 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:4 | 0 |
| 18 |  Rio Ave | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0:3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.