Santa Clara vs Famalicao: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Santa Claravs
FamalicaoThe model puts Famalicao at 36%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Santa Clara.
- +The head-to-head record favours Famalicao (5-1-9).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Santa Clara have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Famalicao have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Santa Clara have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Famalicao is priced at 2.66.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Santa Clara at 35%. The model puts the draw at 30%. The model puts Famalicao at 36%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market frames this as a close contest. Santa Clara is priced at 2.93. The draw is priced at 2.984. Famalicao is priced at 2.66.
Santa Clara have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Famalicao have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Santa Clara have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Famalicao have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Santa Clara average 2 goals per game this season. Santa Clara average 52% possession. Famalicao average 1 goals per game this season. Famalicao average 50% possession.
The model gives 58% for both teams to score. The model gives 55% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Santa Clara or Famalicao?
Our model rates Famalicao as the most likely outcome at 36% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Santa Clara vs Famalicao?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 5 Santa Clara wins, 1 draws, 9 Famalicao wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Campeonato de Portugal| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arouca | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:0 | 6 |
| 2 |  Porto | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:0 | 6 |
| 3 |  Marítimo | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 6 |
| 4 |  Nacional da Madeira | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:2 | 4 |
| 5 | Santa Clara | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:2 | 4 |
| 6 |  Sporting Clube de Portugal | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5:4 | 4 |
| 7 |  Gil Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 8 |  Estrela da Amadora | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4:4 | 2 |
| 9 |  Benfica | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 10 |  Braga | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 11 |  Academico de Viseu | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | 1 |
| 12 | Famalicao | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | 1 |
| 13 |  Estoril | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:3 | 1 |
| 14 |  Alverca | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:4 | 1 |
| 15 |  Moreirense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:6 | 1 |
| 16 |  Casa Pia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 17 |  Vitoria Guimaraes | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:4 | 0 |
| 18 |  Rio Ave | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0:3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.