Gil Vicente vs Casa Pia: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Gil Vicentevs
Casa PiaThe model puts Gil Vicente at 57%. The model leans toward Gil Vicente. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Gil Vicente.
- +The head-to-head record favours Gil Vicente (5-3-1).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Gil Vicente have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Casa Pia have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Gil Vicente have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Gil Vicente is priced at 1.784.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 24 | 10 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 25 | 10 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 4 | 2 | ||||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Gil Vicente at 57%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Casa Pia at 18%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Gil Vicente. Gil Vicente is priced at 1.784. The draw is priced at 3.5. Casa Pia is priced at 4.84.
Gil Vicente have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Casa Pia have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Gil Vicente have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Gil Vicente are on 2 wins in a row. Casa Pia have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Gil Vicente average 1 goals per game this season. Gil Vicente average 63% possession. Casa Pia average 0 goals per game this season. Casa Pia average 61% possession.
The model gives 21% for both teams to score. The model gives 17% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Gil Vicente or Casa Pia?
Our model rates Gil Vicente as the most likely outcome at 57% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Gil Vicente vs Casa Pia?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 9 meetings: 5 Gil Vicente wins, 3 draws, 1 Casa Pia wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
Campeonato de Portugal| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arouca | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:0 | 6 |
| 2 |  Porto | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:0 | 6 |
| 3 |  Marítimo | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 6 |
| 4 |  Nacional da Madeira | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:2 | 4 |
| 5 |  Santa Clara | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:2 | 4 |
| 6 |  Sporting Clube de Portugal | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5:4 | 4 |
| 7 | Gil Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 8 |  Estrela da Amadora | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4:4 | 2 |
| 9 |  Benfica | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 10 |  Braga | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 11 |  Academico de Viseu | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | 1 |
| 12 |  Famalicao | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | 1 |
| 13 |  Estoril | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:3 | 1 |
| 14 |  Alverca | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:4 | 1 |
| 15 |  Moreirense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:6 | 1 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 17 |  Vitoria Guimaraes | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:4 | 0 |
| 18 |  Rio Ave | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0:3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.