Malaga vs Deportivo de A Coruna: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Malagavs
Deportivo de A CorunaThe model puts Malaga at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Malaga.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Malaga have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Deportivo de A Coruna have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Malaga have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Malaga is priced at 2.55.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Malaga at 40%. The model puts the draw at 31%. The model puts Deportivo de A Coruna at 30%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Malaga is priced at 2.55. The draw is priced at 3.064. Deportivo de A Coruna is priced at 2.99.
Malaga have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Deportivo de A Coruna have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 6 of their head-to-head meetings.
Malaga have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Malaga are on 2 wins in a row. Deportivo de A Coruna have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Malaga or Deportivo de A Coruna?
Our model rates Malaga as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Malaga vs Deportivo de A Coruna?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 4 Malaga wins, 6 draws, 5 Deportivo de A Coruna wins.
League table
Spain. La Liga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Deportivo Alaves | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  Espanyol | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 |
| 3 |  Sevilla | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 4 |  Villarreal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 5 |  Racing de Santander | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 6 |  Real Sociedad | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 7 |  Elche | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 8 |  Celta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 | Malaga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 |  Real Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 |  Barcelona | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 |  Atletico Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 | Deportivo de A Coruna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 |  Valencia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 15 |  Athletic Bilbao | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 16 |  Real Betis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 17 |  Osasuna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 18 |  Rayo Vallecano | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 19 |  Getafe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:3 | 0 |
| 20 |  Levante UD | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.