Leon vs Monterrey: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Leonvs
MonterreyThe model puts Monterrey at 47%. The model leans toward Monterrey. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Monterrey.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- +Leon are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Leon have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Monterrey have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Leon have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Leon will be without Echeverria R., Estrada, Guerra, Diaz I..
- Monterrey will be without Djurdjevic.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Leon at 28%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Monterrey at 47%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Monterrey. Leon is priced at 3.21. The draw is priced at 3.62. Monterrey is priced at 2.06.
Leon have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. Monterrey have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Leon have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Monterrey have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Monterrey are on 4 wins in a row.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Leon or Monterrey?
Our model rates Monterrey as the most likely outcome at 47% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Leon vs Monterrey?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 7 Leon wins, 3 draws, 5 Monterrey wins.
Match statistics
Leon
- 3Guevara
- 5Vegas S.
- 6Beltran Cruz
- 7Moreno
- 13Arcila
- 14Romana J.
- 16Cortizo
- 23Garcia
- 27Cambindo
- 29Rebollar J.
- 35Valadez
- Echeverria R. (Missing Player)
- Estrada (Questionable)
- Guerra (Questionable)
- Diaz I. (Questionable)
Monterrey
- 2Chavez R.
- 3Arteaga
- 4Guzman
- 7Ocampos
- 8Torres O.
- 9Rossi Di.
- 10Orellano
- 22Cardenas L.
- 25Pineda Orb.
- 30Rodríguez Jor.
- 99Kuijpers
- Djurdjevic (Missing Player)
League table
Mexico. Liga MX| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8:1 | 10 |
| 2 |  Tijuana | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6:2 | 10 |
| 3 | Monterrey | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12:5 | 9 |
| 4 |  Atlas Guadalajara | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6:5 | 9 |
| 5 |  Deportivo Toluca | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6:3 | 7 |
| 6 |  Pumas UNAM | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7:5 | 7 |
| 7 |  Puebla | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6:5 | 7 |
| 8 |  Queretaro | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5:4 | 7 |
| 9 |  Guadalajara | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3:3 | 7 |
| 10 |  Cruz Azul | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8:8 | 6 |
| 11 | Leon | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5:5 | 6 |
| 12 |  Club Necaxa | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6:7 | 6 |
| 13 |  Atlante | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5:5 | 5 |
| 14 |  Pachuca | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6:6 | 3 |
| 15 |  Atletico San Luis | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4:8 | 2 |
| 16 |  Tigres de la UANL | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6:10 | 1 |
| 17 |  Santos Laguna | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2:8 | 0 |
| 18 |  Juarez | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2:13 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.